Entering Election Day, Donald Trump is a slight favorite to win the 2024 election, though the outcome is effectively a toss-up. Neither candidate is clearly favored in enough states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed, with Trump currently at 219 and Harris at 226, and 93 votes dispersed across seven “tossup” states. The former Republican President holds a narrow lead in six of the seven “tossup” states—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—while Harris has a slight edge in Michigan.

Harris’s most efficient path to 270 runs through the Rust Belt, holding Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania would give her exactly 270 electoral votes, enough to secure the presidency without a single Sun Belt state. Meanwhile, Trump’s most efficient path involves holding North Carolina and flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania, in which case he’d hit exactly 270. As such, Pennsylvania almost certainly holds the key to either candidate’s path