HELENA — The 2024 NAIA Football Selection Show is Sunday, following the regular-season’s final weekend. The Frontier Conference has never sent four teams to the NAIA Football Championship Series, but sporting a ranked quartet entering Saturday, that’s a real possibility.
No. 23 Carroll College would need to beat No. 8 Montana Tech to increase those odds, but it’s much more likely the Frontier sends three teams to the expanded 20-team playoff for a second consecutive season.
The selection (for at-large teams) and seeding processes (for automatic berths) are complicated and many different factors are considered. At-large teams must be ranked in the top-25 of the final regular-season NAIA coaches’ poll (Nov. 17).
Teams ranked one-through-six in the final regular-season NAIA coaches poll will be seeded in the order of rating finish (potentially applies to Montana Western).
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The selection show is scheduled for 5 p.m. MT on Sunday.
Montana Western wide receiver Eli Nourse (7) receives a pass from Montana Western quarterback Michael Palandri (10) resulting in a touchdown for the Bulldogs during the Frontier Conference football game between Montana Western and Carroll College on Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024 at Bulldog Stadium.
JOSEPH SCHELLER, The Montana StandardCriteria for selection (primary criteria) – no weight or order, other than primary and secondaryOverall record/winning percentageRecord vs. top-10 opponent in coaches ratingRecord vs. top-25 opponent in coaches ratingRecord vs. receiving votes opponent in coaches ratingRecord outside of top-25Area RatingAverage of Steve Pugh* (Versus Team Rankings) & Peter R. Wolfe Ratings**Secondary criteria
Conference recordResults vs. non-NAIA opponentsCoaches RankingOpponents’ recordHead-to-headAdditional information for consideration
Team scheduleHome/away/neutral recordsScoreOpponents/Common opponentsInjury status – players out in key games, etc.Weather-related outcomes* – Versus Sports Simulator is a suite of software products that use advanced proprietary mathematical models to rate sports teams and produce computer-generated game predictions (website link)
** – Peter R. Wolfe; rates all varsity teams of four year colleges that can be connected by mutual opponents, taking note of game locations. Games played against club teams, junior varsity teams, or junior or community college teams aren't counted (website link)
Montana Western Bulldogs8-1 overall (.889)2-0 vs. top-10 opponents (College of Idaho, Montana Tech)3-1 vs. top-25 opponents (College of Idaho, Montana Tech, Carroll College)0-0 vs. receiving votes opponents5-0 record outside top-25No. 1 Area Rating (released on Oct. 24; to be updated on Thursday)Steve Pugh Rankings (No. 5); Peter R. Wolfe (No. 9)Secondary criteria
6-1 Frontier1-0 vs. NCAA Division III (Lewis & Clark College)No. 4 NAIA coaches ranking41-44 opponents’ recordHead-to-head advantage vs. Carroll College, Montana Tech
Montana Tech wide receiver Levi Torgerson (2) celebrates a touchdown with Montana Tech tight end Logan Kennedy (80) during the Frontier Conference football game between Montana Tech and Rocky Mountain College on Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024 at Alumni Coliseum.
JOSEPH SCHELLER The Montana StandardMontana Tech Orediggers8-2 overall (.800)2-1 vs. top-10 opponents (Georgetown, Southern Oregon)2-2 vs. top-25 opponents1-0 vs. receiving votes opponents (Carroll College)6-0 record outside top-25No. 5 Area Rating (released on Oct. 24; to be updated on Thursday)Steve Pugh Rankings (No. 12); Peter R. Wolfe (No. 14)Secondary criteria
5-2 Frontier0-0 vs. non-NAIA opponentsNo. 8 NAIA coaches ranking44-48 opponents’ recordHead-to-head advantage vs. Southern Oregon (pending Carroll game on Saturday)Southern Oregon Raiders8-2 overall (.800)2-0 vs. top-10 opponents (College of Idaho, Montana Western)2-2 vs. top-25 opponents0-0 vs. receiving votes opponents6-0 record outside top-25No. 2 Area Rating (released on Oct. 24; to be updated on Thursday)Steve Pugh (No. 21); Peter R Wolfe (No. 18)Secondary criteria
5-2 Frontier1-0 vs. Independent (Lincoln)No. 14 NAIA coaches ranking37-56 opponents’ recordHead-to-head advantage vs. Montana Western
Carroll College linebacker Ben Mehlhaff (#3) celebrates a sack with defensive linemen teammates Hunter Peck (#19) and Forrest Suero (#91) during the Saints' 24-19 victory over Eastern Oregon on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, inside Nelson Stadium.
Sonny Tapia, Independent RecordCarroll College Saints7-2 overall (.778)1-1 vs. top-10 opponents (Southern Oregon)2-2 vs. top-25 opponents (Southern Oregon, College of Idaho)0-0 vs. receiving votes opponents5-0 record outside of top-25No. 8 Area Rating (released on Oct. 24; to be updated on Thursday)Steve Pugh (No. 17); Peter R. Wolfe (No. 23)Secondary criteria
6-1 Frontier0-0 vs. non-NAIA opponentsNo. 23 NAIA coaches ranking38-46 opponents’ recordHead-to-head advantage vs. Southern Oregon (pending Tech game on Saturday)Takeaways: Montana Western (assuming advancement) should be in a position to host multiple playoff games.
Montana Tech has a stronger résumé than Southern Oregon, helped by the Orediggers’ scheduling – and defeating – of nationally-ranked Georgetown (Ky.). Tech certainly earns a first-round bye (top-12 seed) by beating Carroll Saturday. Could the Orediggers sneak into a second-round home game?
Carroll College misses the playoffs with a loss Saturday. Question is, does a victory over Tech vault the Saints past SOU (assuming max three Frontier teams make FCS) or give the selection committee enough reason to send four Frontier programs to the playoffs (never happened before).
Selection of at-large teams (derived from NAIA website)
32 teams (8 from each ARC) will be presented to the National Selection Committee for considerationAutomatic qualifiers are moved to seeding poolRemaining top-8 ARC teams ranked inside NAIA coaches top-25 are eligible for nomination to the at-large poolAll teams in the at-large pool will be considered for remaining berths and each committee member shall vote in a round-by-round manner on a singular team for inclusion in the seeding poolThe committee will fill the remaining at-large berths as follows: an initial ballot ranking the possible at-large teams under consideration by NSC membersA point value is assignedA single vote (Yes or No) for a singular team will be called for by the NSC chair (either inclusion of team in seeding pool, or exclusion of team from at-large pool)Process is repeated until at-large berths are filled in the seeding poolEmail Daniel Shepard at daniel.shepard@406mtsports.com and find him on X/Twitter @IR_DanielS.
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